Metrostudy, a market intelligence firm owned by PSN parent company Hanley Wood, has released its New Pool Index (NPI) for the third quarter of this year.
The NPI measures new swimming pool construction by compariing it against 2005, considered the peak of pool-industry activity. It works similar to a percentage, with 2005 activity represented by 100. Numbers above and below 100 show the percentage comparison: An index of 120 would indicate activity that was 20% higher than in 2005; an 80 would mean it was 20% lower.
For Q3 2019, the metric increased to 52.7, an increase of 1% from Q2, and a year-over-year gain of 6%. This marks 37 consecutive quarters of year-over-year gains since 2009. However, the rate of increase is now moderating compared to the 8 percent increases averaged over the last few years. While Metrostudy forecasts continued growth, it expects the rate of increase to reduce significantly in the next couple years, with year-over-year gains of 1.0 percent in 2020, followed by 1.5 percent in 2021.
“As the trade war with China is hampering business investment and manufacturing, it appears the consumer has stepped in to keep supporting gains in the labor market,” said Mark Boud, Chief Economist at Metrostudy. “Steady annual gains in wages and a stable stock market also bode well for continued consumer strength and spending in the pool industry.
“However, job growth is still weaker compared to last year and is projected to continue waning over the next few years as the economic cycle loses steam, even if the trade conflict is straightened out. This, combined with slower activity in the housing market, lends to an outlook of relatively flat growth in new pool installations over the short term.”
Metrostudy produces the NPI to help the industry see what’s ahead in local markets by monitoring 381 local markets. According to the third quarter report, 287 of those markets are expected to see year-over-year growth in new pool projects in 2019, with these markets averaging 4.9 percent growth.
The company designated the following markets as its top 10 performers:
1. North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, Fla.
2. Naples-Immokalee-Marco Island, Fla.
3. Panama City, Fla.
4. Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent, Fla.
5. Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, Fla.
6. Deltona-Daytona Beach-Ormond Beach, Fla.
7. Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, Calif.
8. Miami-Fort Lauderdale-West Palm Beach, Fla.
9. Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, Fla.
10. Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville, Fla.
For more information on accessing the full quarterly report, please email Robb Coltrin at rcoltrin@metrostudy.com.
